Who Will Win the Olympic Marathons?

Alex, Katelyn and Michael describe the Paris Olympic marathon course in detail, and what to expect when live streaming both the men's and women's marathons this weekend. Will Eliud Kipchoge pull of the improbable and win gold in the Olympic marathon for a third straight time? Or will there be a new Olympic champ at 26.2 miles? And in the women's marathon, which concludes the Paris Olympics, will defending champ Peres Jepchirchir dominate the field, or can world record holder Tigst Assefa use her speed on this incredibly hilly and challenging course? We break it all done for you so you'll be primed and ready for this weekend's Olympic marathons in Paris, which are set for 2:00 a.m. EDT Saturday (for the men's race) and 2:00 a.m. EDT Sunday (for the women's race).

And be sure to check this feed after the marathons this weekend for our instant reaction pods!

Hosts: Alex Cyr, Katelyn Tocci, Michael Doyle

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Transcript

0:01

All right, I'm joined by my my two teammates at these Paris Olympic Games remotely. Alex and Caitlin. Guys, we're going to talk all about the marathons. This is basically going to be a marathon heavy podcast today. But first, let's let's do a little overview of what we've watched thus far and what's coming up in the next couple of days, because we're recording this on Wednesday morning. So. We have no idea what happens on Wednesday afternoon slash evening in Paris, but there's some exciting stuff coming up in these last few days of the track meet at the Olympic Games capped off by the marathons, which we're going to go deep on for the most of the most part with this podcast. But first, let's let's get in a time machine and take a trip back to earlier this week. This I got to say, you know, you guys know me well, and I'm cynical about. the Olympics. have a lot of complaints about the Olympics, but when the track meet begins, all the cynicism, cynicism fades. And this has been a stellar Olympics on the track. I'd say like, what's your favorite moment so far? Caitlin favorite moment. What do you got so are a bunch to choose from. would say loving watching the strategy and everything of those longer races. I think one of my favorite moments was in the 10 ,000 meters. I just absolutely loved the close, know, the final kick of the 10 ,000 meters and watching Grant Fisher take bronze was an awesome, awesome moment. I mean, there are so many moments I can mention. There are probably more exciting moments, but that one for me, I just like really felt it like Team USA. Getting a medal in that 10 ,000 meters, closing as strong as he did, it was incredible to watch. Team USA is kicking ass right now. as two Canadians, Alex, we're sort of like, we have mixed emotions about this. Kaitlyn, you're jacked, you're American, you're psyched about this. You get to like, you just get to get all star spangled, bannery right now. But for us, we're like, you know, we're kind of, we like America, but at the same time, it's like Canadians, kind of define ourselves by not being American. But I gotta say, it's like. There's some, it's been a real sort of like a coming out party for a lot of the American runners this time around. And it's really cool. It's been really cool. Like Alex, what's your, what's your moment of these games thus far on the Yeah, my god. Speaking of America, my moment, this was the most emotional moment, maybe not the best. So I'm super hyped for the 1500, as everyone is. That's my favorite race personally to run as well, so I need to see it. I'm really invested in the Jakob versus Kerr hype. I watch them get to the start line. I have my popcorn ready. And my stream cuts as the race begins. So me and a whole lot of other Canadians were watching the CBC stream, which had been perfect until the very start of the 1500 meters. And it cuts for like three and a half minutes, like as if it were planned. And when my stream comes back, the first shot I get on my TV is Cole Hawker ringing the bell. And I'm thinking I've been duped because I was not on my bingo card whatsoever. And then of course I have to wait hours before I can see the full replay. Someone put it on YouTube. It might have been CBC, the Canadian broadcaster, to their credit. And then I rewatched the race, and that was amazing. Just to see this rivalry never really coming to fruition. This young, what, 23 -year -old American ruining it for Kerr and Jacob. And I mean, kudos to him, right? Michael, you said this as we're talking for the podcast. Seeing someone grow up in front of your own eyes. He used to be a college runner not long ago and now Olympic champion. So I think that was my moment. Even though I am Canadian, I couldn't help to be pretty pumped for Hawker. your boy came in to second. Yeah. yeah, forgot to say, and my boy Nuguz, also Hawker was my Dark Horse prediction. If people have been listening to this podcast, am, yeah, I'm taking full credit for no, dude, were like, you should, you should have, you should put some money on that because, I bet you that the odds for Cole Hawker were pretty hot before the race. And you had all this inside information. You're like, you know, rumor rumor has it that he's, he's like, he's blowing up right now. He's, he's doing things in workouts that he's never done before and he's ready. And he was, he is a closer, right? He was known as being a really strong final 400 meter runner. I can't believe I watched that race, the replay of that race three times last night. And if in preparation, talking about this, but also I just kind of wanted to study it a little bit. cannot believe that Ingebrigtsen left that inside lane open. What a what a total rookie move you got to, you got to just put one leg in that inside lane to block anybody from sneaking by you. And I mean, he didn't and Hawker took advantage of it. Such a weird like, yeah, like total total total black mirror moment for Alex when he's, the stream comes back in and we live in an alternate reality where Cole Hawker is dominating the 1500 meters. Yeah, that was super cool. really regret not taking advantage of this betting as like a track fan. You feel like you could get, you know, a bit of an advantage doing that and I haven't yet and now I kind of kick myself. But yeah, the 15 was amazing. Jakub seemed listless from start to finish. I don't know. We'll see him again in the Alex, you have a few other dark horses that you chose that have also won, which we'll get to later. But I think you did the best out of all of us with the picks because a bunch of your dark horses ran. I won. give it to you for the Gabby Thomas thing. She looked phenomenal in the 200 and she's been your girl from day one, so Yeah, I would say that we've got this has been, yeah, like I said, sort of a coronation to use a fun cliche in the track world, a coronation for a lot of athletes. And Gabby Thomas, definitely one of them. Julian Alford, which would be, I think, my pick for number one moment of the Olympics on the track thus far. still a lot left to go, but just the way she executed in that 100 meter final. and how exciting it was to watch her win. And my very first thought when she crosses the finish line, she dominated that race from the start all the way through. Like she had a great start, she got out ahead and no one was touching her. And she just looked like she was in a different category than the rest of the field. And my very first thought was the Netflix producers, they're sitting at home watching this right now. And they're man, we've got all this like footage of Julian Alfred that we just cut out of our docu series. What do we do for season two? Do we just like, do we do season two? we are we able to, are we able to face her for season two and ask her to be a part of the production? But yeah, that was my pick was this that incredible performance. And although I mean, guys, the 100 meter, the man's hundred meter was that photo finish. couldn't believe it. It was just too close. It was unbelievable. Yeah. Yeah. So what do we got going on? What do we got going on in the next, let's say Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday? For you guys, what's your sort of can't miss event that you want to catch before the games close I mean as a distance fan, I feel funny saying this, but I'm drinking the Lyle's Kool -Aid, man. I can't wait to see the men's 200. I want to see him do the double. So the men's 200 is up there for me. I want to see the 1500s. I want to the women's 1500s. And well, marathons, obviously. want to see the 5 ,000 just because I want to see how, because this morning I was watching the heats and I was checking out Ingebrigtsen and I was thinking of you guys and I was like, want to ask Alex and Michael if this is normal because I was looking at Ingebrigtsen's strategies and I thought, okay, in the 1500, why did he go out front and burn out? And then in this 5 ,000, I do understand that it was just a heat, but he stayed like completely back for most of the entire race and then just, you know, came up to grab the win in the end. So I'm like, which is his real strategy that he usually takes on and which one is he going to execute in the 5 ,000 in the I have a take on this for the 5000 and I think it might have been a prescient strategy by Ingebrigtsen. The fives were really slow, which usually indicates that there's some jostling coming up in the later laps because if you're running much slower than you can, all these runners will be around with a few laps to go as they turn the screw and go away faster. And if you run just a couple steps back, you might be able to avoid the carnage. And carnage is happened this morning. think like what, like five or six different men hitting the ground between like Heat 1 and Heat 2. So I don't know, maybe he had that in mind and looking back it was a good strategy. I feel awful for these guys. you you have Mohamed who as a Canadian, we've talked about this in previous podcasts, but we want him to eventually win his gold and this 5 ,000 meters seemed like a really good opportunity for him, especially 10 ,000 meter champion, Josh Chepdiguy pulling out of the 5 ,000. And well, Mo is in the middle of the fray, he's not running behind or in front, and boom, he falls to the ground and doesn't make it. So I don't know if that's what Inga Brickson thought. He knows he has the closing speed to go towards the front when it matters. And yeah, was so bummed out because Ahmed was on my list. I had Canada up there and I was so bummed out when he fell. Yeah, I did. He was on my list. so this morning I was changing my predictions because I was like, well, okay, now he's out, he fell. I felt so bad for him and all the other guys that ended up in that carnage on the track. In both heats, in two of the heats, there were people who fell. It was horrible. Yeah. Yeah, very strange. Yeah. Really unfortunate. Yeah. But in terms of the 1500 with Ingebrigtsen, I think he just thought he was fitter than everybody else in the field. I think he thought there's nobody that's going to be able to touch me. The workouts are telling me that I can run three, 26, seven close to the world record from the gun. That's a really, really, really hard thing to do, but he's one of these types of people who envisions himself as one of the greatest of all time. you know, you have to to do the part in order to become the become the the thing, the title. So he went for it and just underestimated Cole Hawker. Really. I think he was thinking too much about Josh Kerr and underestimated Cole Hawker and everyone else in the field. So and for him to come in fourth, he's he's the perfect villain. Right. So it's like kind of has this this Shakespearean a dramatic tinge to it, which is pretty delicious, actually. So, I mean, I don't want to revel in someone else's failure, but it just added a narrative quality to that performance that just sort of fulfilled the full promise of the 1500. OK, so let's let's pivot into the two big events that we want to talk about today. And we're going to talk about the men's and the women's marathon. We'll do them in order because the men's marathon is taking place on Saturday at 2 a Eastern time. So set your alarms if you're living in the East Coast of the United States or Canada or don't go to sleep. Yeah, I'm not sure which one. Yeah, I'm not sure which one I'm going to opt for. So we'll talk about the men's race first, then we'll pivot into the women's race. But before we even get into talking about kind of what you need to know about who's in this race, who to watch out for and kind of what anticipate as a viewer. I think we need to talk about I think what I would describe as the biggest character in both of these marathons, which is the course itself, because this course is special. It's special, but both because it might be the most lovely course in terms of sightseeing ever devised for an Olympics or even just a major marathon. full stop, but it's also maybe the most brutal course that anyone could ever come up with for an Olympic Games. I mean, it's just awful. So we can go through some of these details here. I've made some notes, guys. So this course, it basically hits all the great sites of Paris. get to see the Eiffel Tower a couple of times, just like with the Boston Marathon with the famous iconic sicko sign. These runners are going to see the Eiffel Tower and they're going to pass by it with about, I think it's a couple of miles, two miles to go. So when you see the Eiffel Tower on screen, watching the race towards the end stage of the race, you know that things are getting very real, but this course is brutally hilly. Like what's your take on the construction of this course? Like Alex, do you think? How do you think the course is going to factor into this race? Hmm. I think it's going to remove the time trialers from contention unless they adopt a whole different strategy. I tend to do this because I come from a track background and that has a bit more merit and value on the track. When you look at times, times really matter and the marathon matters a whole lot less. These races will be interesting, especially on the women's side and we'll get to that. the women have a 2 .11 runner, which on most years would make the Olympics on the men's side of things in Tegus de Ceffa. I can't even put my money on her to win a medal because it's not going to be about times. It's going to be about grit. When we make our predictions, like what I did with my predictions, I looked at who did well in Boston and tough courses and went from that. I say it's going to be really tough to predict who actually prevails in a tough course. Yeah, I agree. I was doing the absolute same thing. I was like, OK, who ran really well in Boston? Who won Boston? Who won New York? Who won any hilly course? Or even thinking about tough conditions in general, like there were some runners who had just faced a lot of really difficult weather. I mean, I think any kind of obstacle, if you're good at solving problems while you're running, you don't have to be the fastest runner to have the best race. mean, we go back to. climate and thinking of or weather and thinking about Des Linden in Boston or something like that. You don't always have to have the fastest times to win marathons. And I think that we're going to see that here with these crazy hills. mean, they have a hill with it, like a 13 .5 % grade. I mean, that is a serious hill. We're not talking about 6%. There's another 10%. The first one is the first hill is supposed to be the light one. It's supposed to seem like one of the Boston Marathon. hills and Heartbreak Hill and from there on it just gets harder and harder. I mean it just gets trickier and those are going to be some serious hills. So I did the same as you Alex. I really looked at racers who I think kind of like have the grit to get through a tougher marathon. Go on like your condo treadmill or your apartment treadmill and crank up the incline to 13 and run on that for a bit to understand how steep that actually Yeah, there's, I noted that our friends over at let's run .com had a very comprehensive feature on this race and talk quite a bit about the course. And Jonathan Gault, who wrote the piece, identified a couple of sections that he says were between 12 and 16 % grade Hills, which, which is like, that's power walking. That's not running. And that's right. I mean, I think it's going to make for incredible TV. I don't know how much these runners are going to enjoy it. Yeah. So, so between 14 and 20 ish K there's a little over 500 feet of climbing. So that's a six K or 3 .8 ish mile stretch and it's averages 2 .55 % grade climb. That's just takes that'll just take the wind out of you over a period of time. And that's at a really tough point in the race. It's at a point in the race where you kind of want to be comfortable still and settle as a marathon runner, not where you want to be having an elevated heart rate and working pretty hard. And just like as a point of comparison, the Newton Hills, which Caitlin's very familiar with because you're a Newtonian. Is that what you guys call it yourselves? Newtonians? nice. Got it. The Boston Newton Hills. with the famous Heartbreak Hill is about 150 feet of climbing over a mile and a half. And that's only a 1 .89 % grade. So you're doing the Newton Hills for two and a half times more Newton Hills with a, like, what is that? I'm just eyeballing the percentage to like a 30 % tougher overall grade. So have fun with that, guys. That's gonna be rough. times here. No, no, not at all. Actually, that's a really interesting question. What are the times going to be? We can flick on that later on. We can talk about that when we talk about our predictions at the end, but like, I don't even know. It's kind of like, who knows what the times are going to be, but yeah. So this course is got way more total elevation gain than Boston or New York. It's like nearly 1500 feet, whereas Boston and New York are around 800. And then the total drop is also more than Boston, New York, although Boston's pretty close. Boston's like nearly ,300 feet of descending, which is the reason why Boston's really hard. But this Olympic course is 1 ,430 feet of descending. So these runners' legs are going to be trashed, absolutely trashed. So it's something to watch out for. It's gonna play a huge role. I think it's gonna create a pretty wide open race in both races. The women's race, think has maybe a clear favorite. I don't know. We'll debate. We can discuss this after, but we'll get into the women's race in a second. let's talk about the men's race first. Okay. So it's happening on Saturday morning, three o 'clock in the morning, as I said, Eastern time. I don't know who the favorite is. I'm curious to hear if either of you have a take on that, but I think the very first person we need to talk about just out of sheer to respect kiss the ring is the defending Olympic two time defending Olympic champion Elliott Kipchoge who's looking to three Pete. If he is able to pull this off, I mean, we would bend the knee bow before the great one. I think we're already he's already the greatest of all time. But this is kind of like Tom Brady winning that that Tampa Bay Buccaneers. championship at the end of the career just to like, just to let everyone know, like I can do this at all, at all phases of my career. So for Kipchoge, I mean, he won Tokyo pretty comfortably, but it's been a rough ride the last couple of years. He's no longer as dominant as he once was. Although, you know, again, the let's run article noted that, that he, set a world record, which has been was since bettered, but he set a world record like less than two years ago in Berlin. So he's like not, he's still got that speed, but like Alex, I think the big question mark with Kipchoge is whether or not he can handle the course more than anything else. Eva, don't care if it's 2024, 2016, 2020, like Kipchoge's proven himself not to be a great runner when it comes to adverse conditions, let's say. Yeah, for all his talk about how the mental game has a huge impact, he comes across as more of a time trialer than anything. His best runs being at these curated events and some majors that are fast. shots fired, man. You just took a shot at the king there. But you're right. You're right. I think you're right. There's all sorts of brand building around Kipchoge, the philosopher king of running, and it's all between the ears, and nothing is impossible, blah, blah, blah, blah. But it seems pretty challenging for him to nail. a Boston Marathon, which he did not do or a really crappy day and really tough conditions in the middle of COVID at the London Marathon a couple of years back, where he faded to, I believe, sixth place and really struggled in that race. And I just wonder, and then Tokyo this year, you know, he just, he just didn't look like the kipper we know and love. He just looked like somebody who was really having a tough time when the race wasn't perfectly set up for I would Yeah. Though I will say this in defense of Kipchoge is I think the world of marathoning has moved really quickly in the last couple of years. I'm thinking, you know, the rise and then the unfortunate death of Kelvin Kipton in the span of months. I'm thinking of many runners joining the sub -203 ranks. And because it seems like so much time has passed, Kipchoge enters this conversation of is he past his prime? Is he too old? I think you can maybe say this about Kenanisa Bekele, who's five years older than Kipchoge, but Kipchoge is 37. He's been 37 for eight years now. was going to say, think he's turning 40 later this year. What are you talking about? Olympic press release is 37, so let's go with that. But I swear he was 37 in 2018. I have a feeling I kind of I grew with Michael. I thought he was older than 37. I thought he was. This might be a mistake in the press release, I'm not sure. But the age has always been kind of questionable with him. And I know people have been talking about this for many years. But I don't think, the point is I don't think he's passed his prime. I totally back up that, yes, I totally back up that statement that like, this guy was setting world records two years ago. That is not that long ago. What I think is a little rich is the Olympics playing up the rivalry between Kipper and Kenny and and that they're trying to serve that as the main event, it's not going to be Kipper and Kenny. Either one falters or both falter. I can't see the two of them battling it out as much as I would love to see it. I think there are many other big players that are going to screw that is just an inspiring just side note to make. And I think that what Alex is saying about age and how marathon running and running in general has changed so much over time, because now it's not just like the young bucks who are always the best. And I see it a ton in the trail running world as well. And I think that this spills over into the marathoners because to be a marathoner, you have to be a really smart runner. You can't be some, you know, you can't just have that idea of going out and running my absolute hardest and burning out halfway through the race. You have to be super smart and strategic and I think that that comes with maturity. And I think that that's why these guys are doing such a good job later into their years because okay, maybe they're holding on, they're not getting any better physically perhaps or perhaps they are, but they're maintaining their fitness and then they're just getting better strategically and being able to keep that running maturity and so that's helping a lot, which I think is so cool because it just the field so much to have these older runners also in there. you know, they're talked about. So, I mean, they're up there. They're the contenders. They're the big dogs. Yeah, and I want to be careful to not be disrespectful about age, especially to you two who are now in your 40s and are still getting better with time. Sorry, I've outed you. Like fine wine. But you see this happen in the pros a whole lot too, right? People run their best marathons higher than the age of 40 very often. And I heard the announcers on the track a couple days ago refer to one of the, I think it was a sprinter, I can't remember, as being at the seasoned age of 26 and I just cringed a little bit thinking, right, sprinting and marathon running are very different sports with how they relate to age. So 37 or however old Kepchoge is certainly not too old to win Yeah, I mean, just to flip back to on the track for a second, like Mohamed that we talked about before the Canadian 5 ,000, 10 ,000 meter runner, like he's in his early thirties and it kind of feels like this might be his last Olympics on the track. And he just missed an incredible opportunity, which is really tragic for him, right? Because he is really one of the best North American distance runners on the track ever. And he probably has no place to go now, but up to the marathon. We'll see if he wants to move up to that. I think with Kipchoge just to put put a pin on or put a put a cap on the Kipchoge talk here is I think Kipchoge in his own way is sort of the creator of his own his own not downfall because he's had such an incredible career but he has sort of created these conditions or the scenario right now that he's got to live in which is he is the guy who pushed for breaking two hours. He's the guy who led the way with the development of super shoes and inspired Nike to develop something in the lab that was going to help an athlete like him gain an advantage over everyone else in 2016. And that's when it all began with the super shoe project very secretively. so fast forward many years later, we're now, you know, eight years later from that, that moment and Kipchoge is going to face off all of these runners that have benefited from his trailblazing efforts, right? And all the technology that was built effectively, not for him, but with him as the vessel for it, right? So that's kind of an interesting dynamic right now in 2024 with a guy like Eliyip Kipchoge trying to eke out one last great moment before perhaps riding off into the sunset. Yeah, it would be a neat experience. It would be a neat narrative for the Olympics and for him. yeah, so let's briefly talk about, not briefly, let's talk about the other major contenders here. I mean, we've talked about, someone mentioned the great one, the aged one, Ken Nisabikele. Alex, think you've showed us your hand here. Do you think that Ken Nisabikele was 42 years old entering? these Olympic Games. He's finally made it in the marathon after a couple of attempts previously that failed. He's had like a streaky relationship to this distance, but he's really one of the great distance runners of all time. mean, his first Olympic gold medal on the track was in 2004, which is crazy 20 years ago. But he's coming into this, as you said, like maybe this is just a narrative that, media narrative that is easy to gravitate towards but he's run really really well in the last couple of years. The marathon seems to suit him more or less. I have big question marks over whether or not he's going to be able to handle a gritty course in Paris but you know he is he's an interesting figure to watch for Yeah, I think he's one of those talents that like, you know, he could hop on the podium and then in hindsight we say well, well, of course Ken Onisa He makes sense that he's there, but he hasn't shown it in recent years I think the difference between between Bikili and Kipchoge is Bikili really found his greatness on the track. The marathon's been tougher Whereas Kipchoge, can it's harder to count him out than to count Ken Onisa out because he's been so consistent on the roads I think that's just what Bikili's I can flag some other names for us here. So if you're listening at home and you're creating your little cheat sheet here so that you can follow along and you can identify certain names. Alexander Matisseau of Kenya, he won London and Valencia. He won Valencia at the end of 2023 and he won London this spring. He also goes by Munyao, does he? Matisseau and Yes. There's your tribal name and then a surname in Kenya. So that's why things get a little bit confusing. So I don't know what they haven't released the designations yet, but it'll be either Munyao or Matiso. and then, but he's bit more of a time trailer, right? Because he's one of these very flat, fast courses. And so Tim Kipligat, who came second in Tokyo. But again, Tokyo is sort of a flat, fast course, right? And late replacement here is Tameret Tola of Ethiopia has replaced your guy, Cisselema, who won Boston, who kind of felt like Lemma dropped out. He's had it has a hamstring industry before he dropped out. It kind of felt a little bit like he was the guy to pick for the win. Right. But he's out. Yeah. Yeah. And then fellow Ethiopian, Teresa Jaleta, who won Beijing and Seville in the last couple of years. Beijing is interesting because it's a hard race because of like air quality is always a big factor. It's always very hot and muggy in Beijing. So he's won a tough race and he's run, think, around the 203 range. So he's also fast. So that's someone to keep a note, keep an eye on. Who else do you guys have? mean, there's like, it's really. I don't know who wins this race. sorry, did you mention Kip Roodle who's won Boston, Chicago, Tokyo? maybe I didn't because that's my pick. Benson Kiprudo. Yeah. Okay. So let's get into that Benson Kiprudo of Kenya. He's really ascended. these 33 Alex, you and I have, we've met the man years back. He won the Toronto, he won the Toronto waterfront marathon, sort of when he was ascending. He trained in Kipchoge's famous global sports camp training group. I believe he still does train in that group. I don't know if he's like a direct training partner with Kipchoge. There's a lot of guys in that group, but he's got a gant garnered a lot of experience. He's won. He's won Boston and 21. He won Chicago and 22 Chicago. wouldn't factor in cause it's a very flat course. And then he went Tokyo this year and, and, a big personal best where he made a huge jump in terms of his performance level. So He's a guy definitely to watch out for. And I would say the last two people that I would highlight here are Abne Naguier, who is from the Netherlands and Bashir Abdi of Belgium. They train together, very good runners who've had very consistent results over the last couple of years. So don't be surprised if you see those guys sort of hovering around in the main pack and you're like, who's the Belgian guy and who's the guy with the Dutch singlet on? They're legit. So keep an eye on Well, let's talk about the Americans very briefly before we go into our picks, which, know, Caitlin and I just spoiled. But so we've got we've got three guys, three Americans, Connor Metz, Clayton Young and our boy Leonard Carrere, Lenny Carrere. He made it. He's here or there in Paris. Do any three of these guys have a chance? win? to let's say to metal. Let's go podium. I'm more bullish on another North American to metal. I'll get into that a bit later. But I think they will need a huge effort. Clayton Young and Connor Manz, being BYU products, have spent a lot of time at altitude, which involves difficult training. I don't know how altitude translates to like a hilly course, but the difficulty is there for both. That's about as far as I can take it. You see Americans do so well in these marathons, in these Olympic marathons, and mean America's on a tear, so I wouldn't count them out, but they're not my pick to I would note that Leonard career came in fourth in the Atlanta U S Olympic trials. Now reaching deep in the bag here. And that was an extremely hilly course that was very comparable in some ways to Paris. So, and, very adverse conditions and very warm, which Paris will also be very warm. We didn't even talk about the heat when we talked about the course, it's going to be warm, even though it's starting at a decent time at eight o 'clock in the morning. That's still not, I think early enough to escape the heat in the end. I would say, although you know what, all three of these guys did really well to prepare for pretty tough conditions in Orlando in March for the US Olympic trials. It was very hot, although it was very flat course, but Mance and Young in particular were very prepared. They were very ready and they looked in total command of the race and they kind of knew what they were doing. And they knew They seem to just know exactly how to dole out the effort and they have a pretty good strategy. We actually have a really good feature on their approach training that you edited, Caitlin, that's absolutely excellent that Amby Burfoot, our sort of our godfather at Marathon Handbook, he wrote the piece, chatted with Ed Eistone, their coach. Clayton Young and Connor Manc's coach, and also to both of them as well, and got their insights into how they're approaching this. they have a pretty sound strategy in terms of just like sitting and waiting and being patient and matching moves when they need to be matched. And then really trying to race the last 10 kilometers, which... for the heat too. So hopefully that that will transfer really well to Paris that Ambie talks about in that feature, which is really, really nice. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And then Alex, you teased another North American that I think might be a dark horse, at least a metal threat for sure. And that's Cam Levens. That's our boy, the Canadian. We spent a lot of time chatting with Cam over the years. So I feel like I certainly have a little bit of a bias. I'm definitely cheering for him personally as a fan. he's legitimately, I say a threat here because he's somebody who is going to have very carefully prepared for this course specifically. I know that he's been thinking about Paris for a long time. He told me in an interview I did with him a year and a half ago that he was foregoing a lot of other things in life to focus on Paris, skipping a lot of big opportunities just in on the Paris Olympic Games. putting his wild partying lifestyle on hold for a couple years. of Alex is Alex is being a touch sarcastic there because Mr. Levens is all about running all the time. Yeah, so I think he's I think he's somebody you should definitely watch out for as well. He'll have the Canadian the Canadian vest on. So picks let's do a men's men's marathon who wins and who's your dark horse? Caitlin, you go first. we kind of spoiled it, think Kiprudo is going to be our guy winning Boston, the times that he has. He's my first pick for the marathon. I have a dark horse. I have a problem with predictions. I think that I'm not really good at it because I think I predict with the heart. And I choose dark horses of people who I really want to win, but also think that maybe it could be a surprise because I really liked watching the British runner, Emile Cres in the London, coming third in the London Marathon. And I know that he has more of a track background, but he just ran that race so well. And it was really inspiring for me to watch him win third place. And so my bet is on him as the dark horse, even though he may not have as much experience or experience running really hard courses, but I'm gonna go with him for my dark horse. Sometimes you just the experience, the lack of experience, you know, like to play one of the to lean into one of the sports cliches. Like he just doesn't know how big the stage is for him right now. He just he doesn't know that he shouldn't be there. You know, that could be it could be that narrative when he if he finds his way onto the podium. Alex, what's who who who's your pick in your course? Ethiopia is against the wall. No Cisselema. They need to pick someone else to replace him and take a ringer. Tameratola. I think he's taking the win. He's got Olympic experience. He was the bronze medalist in Rio over 10K. He's a world champion marathoner. He won the marathon in Eugene in 2022. And most recently, he has the 2023 win in New York. now every time I look at someone's bio, it's like, okay, which hilly races did they do? Now I'm realizing that there aren't many hilly races out there that these guys do. They chase times over the year. The majors are pretty flat. And so, yeah, it's possible that he doesn't have what it takes over the hills. We're not going to know until the race. to me, Tola is as good a contender as any. So I'm putting my money on him. My requirement was a Boston and or New York City strong showing didn't necessarily have to be a win, but just somebody who is willing to show up in New York and Boston and race that those courses because they are not paced. Boston, think pays a little bit less than the other marathon majors, which is a factor when you're a pro runner, right? You're racing for money and the The courses are, they're not sexy times when you're competing in Boston, New York, but, they're also really brutal experiences if you're running them, especially if you're running them at that higher level, they're tough, especially Boston. So that was one of the prerequisites for me for a pick. I'm going chalk here. I'm picking Benson Kiprudo for the win. I just think that he has got all the tools to deliver. I think he went up against the big dog and Nellie Kipchoge in Tokyo and was completely unbothered by the attention that Kipchoge was getting. the race really did feel like, mean, we covered that race pretty closely. The Japanese definitely set the table for Kipchoge to run a great race and really keyed on him. And he was the big A -lister, the big headliner of that event. And then Kiproto just showed up and ruined it for him and ran the race of his life. And he's also shown that he can really execute on a heli course in adverse conditions as well. So I'm going with Kiprudo for the win. I'm pulling way into the bag for my dark horse. Check this one out guys. Uganda's Victor Kiplengat. He won the mountain running championships about five or six years ago. There's my guy. So he's somebody who's comfortable with the power walking. He's comfortable with the steep climbs. He's comfortable with it getting messy, getting ugly, getting gritty. He's not looking at his frigging Garmin the entire time fretting about how he's not hitting his splits. So that's what I'm going for. I'm going to, that's he's, he's my dark horse pick. We'll see. It's, it's, I'm really rolling the dice. Okay. Let's pivot into the women's race. Super cool this year. First time in history. The women's marathon closes the Olympics. It's Sunday, two o 'clock in the morning Eastern time. I it's you know, it's being billed as the marquee event. I think it's maybe a better overall race in terms of depth and intrigue than the men's race, although I say they're very close. Let's go through. who we think the favorites are and what the main storylines are. think Alex, mentioned earlier in the pod, the very first thing that we have to look at is Tigist Asefa of Ethiopia. She is the current world record holder by a long shot. I could say by a mile and it literally, and I could literally be correct by a mile. Finally, that cliche actually, it's actually useful here. almost more or less by a mile. She's run 211. I mean, she's just like cream of the crop. She did run London in April and did not win that race, but was in it till the end, which I was impressed by. I watched that race live in London, so I got to see with my very own eyes and she was hanging at the end. I think there was some fear or suspicion that she was a one -trick pony, that that Berlin race that she ran last year was going to be it for her. But she's in these Olympic games and she is definitely somebody everyone's going to be paying attention to. And certainly the broadcasters, the media that are covering this race, when you're watching this race live on TV or streaming it, they're going to be talking a lot about her and she should be in that lead pack. Do you guys think she is going to deliver? I'm not sure. I see this race as a battle between time, experience, and game. Time is Tigas Aceffa. Experience is Perez Gepp -Chir -Chir. She's the defending Olympic champ. She knows how to deliver on the stage. And then game is Helen O 'Berry. She's won Boston the last two times, New York in 2023. Michael, say your criteria is Boston, New York. By that definition, you must. pick Helen O 'Berry for the win. There's nobody else. But all three have a different ace in their hand. is 2 -11, what does that mean over the hills? I don't know. I'm curious to find out. But I think it's going to be tough for Acefa to run away with it. think the others have, they have something. They have something in their hand. funny that Alex is mentioning those three because I'm not going to say in what order they are, but like those are the three that I think this, that's my podium. Like the race, the race for me is between those three women and exactly for those reasons. Cause you're like, okay, well you can't completely cut out someone with that time, with that amazing time. Like we can say, okay, maybe she's best in just, you know, flat courses. And it was like this one time wonder. I don't think so, but you we still have to take that into consideration even though this course is gonna be extremely difficult. So I also have like these extremes thinking like, okay, each one has their special characteristic and their strength. And so to see like them battling out the strengths and see which strength is more important for this race. Okay, so let's pivot to, think, is the private favorite in the race. just mentioned the resume Alex Perez, Jeb Chir -Chir of Kenya. She's the reigning Olympic champion. She's won, feels like everything. She's won Boston, she's won London, she's won New York. She's got the women's only world record. the women's only world record is it just means that there are no male Pacers running with them. it has to be the Pacers have to be women or just no Pacers at all. And she set that mark in London of this year. So she's at the peak of her powers and ran to 16, 16 in the process. And she also, she's held the women's half marathon record in the past and I believe still has the women's only. a half marathon record. she's very quick over the shorter distance as well. I think she's going into this. She's got to be the favorite. mean, she's the queen of distance running right now, my opinion. Yeah, and if you look at head to head, think London might be the best proxy for this. know, Helen O 'Berry competing more on the North American side and then her two competitors more on the other side of the Atlantic. But London was a good one because Jeb Cheer Cheer actually edged out a Cepha near the end, right? Put seven seconds on her and, you know, very close race. also when the push comes to shove, maybe and it's not a time trial, maybe you have to give Jeb Cheer Cheer the edge because of And then there's Helen O 'Berry of Kenya. trains in Colorado and runs for on running and curious detail. haven't talked about shoes at all, which is crazy, Alex. mean, we've got you here and we've not discussed shoes once talking about these marathons, but she's wearing a very interesting shoe that was prototyped in Boston that we got to see. we were kind of like, what is that shoe? There's like, it's like a slipper with no shoelaces. Turns out it's this. really neat shoe that on came up with that obviously has some, some serious performance upside because she just crushed the last couple of miles of the Boston marathon. looks super fresh at the end, but her thing is coming in. She's got Boston 23, New York 23, Boston 24. mean, she's, she's flying in with, I would say if you're looking for someone with the most immaculate resume to win. the Paris Olympic games. mean, that is, I mean, that's the gold standard right there with like back to back to back of these really tough courses, being able to pull off great performances there. So I'd say that she is also a big favorite. What do you guys think about the, what do you think about, do you think about the American trio of runners? There's three women representing the United States, Emily Sisson, Dakota Lindewurm and Fiona O 'Keeffe who in her debut marathon. at the U S Olympic marathon trials in March, won the whole damn thing, ran a really impressive time, really great performance. The heat didn't seem to bother her at all. Drove the pace in the last third of the race. mean, totally owned everyone in that field. Do we, do we think that any of these three women can find their way to the podium? I don't think we'll see them. Yeah, I think the front is too strong. I think they might have a great race in the chase pack, but I think the front is too strong and it's going to overshadow the American race. Lin -Worm, O 'Keefe in particular, I think has an amazing future in the marathon given that she's so new and she's going to chalk this up as experience. But I think that the top is too strong for the Americans to keep pace. see it and I would love for one to prove us wrong because it would be amazing to have Team USA up there. But it seems like the competition in this race is just so, so tough. And we can give a brief shout out to Alex, our fellow Canadian in the race, Melinda Elmore, who is the same age as me. She's 44 years old and she is running extremely well. I chatted with her a little while ago and she sounds like she's well prepared. She was running in some extreme heat and on some hilly courses out in British Columbia where she lives in interior BC. And also of a cool thing. I'm sure a lot of athletes did this. was reading some of the other athletes did do this, which is she actually traveled to Paris earlier this year and ran big chunks of the course in particular, that middle section of the course that's super hilly. She wanted to see what it was like. So she went and ran it a couple of times and then also kind of walked through the finishing area on foot because it's like a major tourist trap when it's not the Olympics, when the Olympics are not going on. It's not. shut down to the world. she sort of like did the walkthrough with that, to envision what it was like. And she did really well in, Tokyo in that pressure cooker, like literal heat, humidity pressure cooker in, Sapporo. So keep an eye on her as a top 10. I'm not saying I'm a podium threat, but in terms of a strong top 10 finish in a strong second half, keep an eye on her. Okay guys, our picks. Alex, you get to go first this time. Who's going to win the women's marathon and who is your dark horse pick? I think for her recent success and her gamerness, I'm going with Helen O 'Berry. She does well and she's done well recently on many courses. And I think that's what she might have over Jeb Chirchir. Jeb Chirchir has been winning for a long time, yes, but I don't think she's been as recently dominant so often as O 'Berry. So I'm giving it to her. My Dark Horse. And I think this is going to be a Cole Hawker situation. talking about the top three, this particular athlete gets to fly under the radar, free of pressure, Sharon Loquetti. Here's another athlete. Well, we probably had the same train of thought, right? An athlete who did super well at the most recent Boston Marathon, she finished second. I feel like we haven't seen the best of her yet. She's relatively new on the scene. And I could see, I mean, I think it's going to be tough for Lochetti to knock one of these women off the podium, but also I could see one of these top three faltering and opening the door for Lochetti. I could see her winning a Yeah. And Caitlin, your picks. guys the three were my podium and Obiri. I also have as number one, I have Obiri, Depthier, Cheir, and Asefa as gold, silver, and bronze, if all goes well for them. And my dark horse, this was tricky for me because again, I'm speaking with my heart. I don't think, we didn't mention Hassan and I think that she's probably gonna end up getting, yeah, like we didn't mention her and I still think what she's doing is pretty cool and I know that she didn't get gold in We just watched the, was it the 5 ,000? And so I don't know if she's holding back and keeping trying to conserve some energy. So I just kind of wanted to mention her because who knows? Maybe she takes it easy. She can pull through for the marathon. So I have her like as my duck, maybe she's going to surprise everyone and she's going to rest up and have this amazing energy. I think it's going to be tricky, but she's there. She's always in the back of my mind thinking like it would be awesome for her to podium in one of these races in the marathon. I can't believe in talk with Sifan Hassan, but there we go. All right. My picks are I'm going Perez, Jip, cheer cheer. she's just too good. And my dark horse, as I spoiled moments ago, Sharon, look, Eddie, as you said, Alex really strong run in Boston, one New York previously, flying under the radar. She was initially not even picked for, she was the alternate for the Kenyon team. and then got to move into that spot. as the third pick. And I think that she's going to have a really great race. So there's our picks. There's, there's the marathons. It's going to be amazing. we will try to get some sort of a podcast out in terms of instant reactions. I don't know if it's going to be at like six o 'clock in the morning Eastern time, but, we'll try to figure out some sort of way to, to, to give our instant feedback as to what happens, because I think it's going to be a lot of drama. on the streets of Paris. All right, guys, thanks very much. we'll talk after the Olympics are over. Happy watching.